“Probability and statistics are predicated on a narrow view of uncertainty.” – Herbert Weisberg
The Uncertainty Formula: Uncertainty = Ambiguity + Doubt
1. What is doubt? It’s the probability of outcomes divorced of ambiguity (aka mathematical probability). 2. What is ambiguity? It’s the absence of context (place and time).
3. Is a state of uncertainty subjective or objective? It’s both.
4. To what degree can a state of uncertainty be quantified? It depends on the amount of ambiguity.
Uncertainty isn’t Probability
“[A]ny probability statement…has less factual content than an assertion of certain fact would have, and at the same time has more factual content than a statement of complete ignorance.” – Ronald Fisher
Any statement of uncertainty, then, has at least as much factual content as its statement of probability.